ZEN IN THE ART OF OMAHA

by John
Vorhaus

I have played about six million hands of Omaha. Most of them on computer, but enough in real life, for real money, to know that Omaha is a very tricky game, perhaps the trickiest brand of poker going right now. Many people who play and relish the game don't have a clue as to its true strengths and weaknesses. If you can get into a game with one of these players, you can make a truckload of money. If you are one of these players, you can lose a truckload of money. The point of the next three thousand words or so is to help you be an Omaha winner and not an Omaha loser.

It's not by accident that I call this article, "Zen in the art of Omaha." If you know anything about zen, then you know that, in zen thought, confusion is the soul of understanding. Same with Omaha. Just when you think you've got the game figured out, it throws something new at you. No other poker game is more vexing, more last-card heartbreaking, more demanding of "feel" and "touch" than Omaha. People-sense far outranks card-sense in Omaha, but nothing outranks self-sense. Forget about knowing the odds or knowing the players, if you don't know yourself in Omaha, you're dead meat.

Omaha is an optimist's paradise. Because your four starting cards offer so many tantalizing choices and prospects, you'll be tempted to stay in far more hands than you would if you were playing stud or hold 'em. This is due to the simple fact that literally any four starting cards can become the nuts on the flop. How can you resist? And yet you must resist--and here comes the notion of knowing yourself. To paraphrase Kipling, if you can keep your head while all around you are losing theirs, you'll be an Omaha player, my son. Which raises the question: How do you keep your head?

First, some ground rules. For the purposes of this article, we're discussing Omaha high-low split, eight or better qualifies the low, like they play in Las Vegas and Southern California and around my dining room table. People like split-pot Omaha; check that, people love split-pot Omaha. If four cards offer tantalizing prospects in high-only Omaha, those same four cards can boggle the mind in high-low split. Let's assume that we're playing moderate limits, say $10-20, so that we can expect players around the table to be at least reasonably sensible, but probably not more. If they were really sensible, they wouldn't be playing Omaha in the first place. Remember that Omaha is two from your hand, three from the board; flop, turn, river; you know the drill.

Okay, the first thing you need to do is evaluate your starting cards. I prefer the "packets" system devised by noted poker theorist John Vorhaus, who suggests that you determine the strength of your hand in terms of the two- or three-card "packets," or working combinations, it contains. For example, the hand Ah-Kh-2-2 contains five, count 'em, five packets, the heart flush, the high straight, the low straight, the pair of deuces, and the A-2 low. This is a fairly powerful hand. Here's one that's not so good: K-8-7-2. This hand contains only one packet, the middle straight, and not a very good one at that. Fold this puppy. Fold it fast.

The trouble with Omaha is that there's a vast gray area between the obvious-raise hand and the obvious-fold hand. What, for example, do you do with Jd-J-T-9d? There's, let's see... about four packets: the pair of jacks, the J-10 straight, the 10-9 straight, and the diamond flush. I like this hand because a flop that helps one packet will likely help another. Can you see how a jack in the flop will give you a set, and also move you closer to a full house or a straight? Of course you can.

But what if that fourth card were the 3d instead of the 9d? You'd only have one packet less, but you'd also have one card in your hand that was absolutely useless. Outside of drawing to a weakish flush, there is literally no way that three is going to help you (unless the board yields three threes, but if that's the sort of Omaha you plan to play, I suggest you hurry down to my house right now). So here's how you want to use packets. Make sure you have three or more, but more important, make sure that all four of your cards are working in your hand. If only three (or God forbid two) of your cards are working for you, you're giving away a tremendous advantage to your opponents. You don't want to do that, do you? Of course you don't.

Many people will play any A-2 that comes along, knowing that any other three low cards will lock them into a nut low. Trouble is, any A or 2 that falls (a shocking 51% chance over the course of five cards) will counterfeit your low, rendering a dead loss any money you've invested in the hand up to that point. If you have A-2-3, however, your hand is much more than one-third stronger, because a matching card will now not kill your hand by counterfeit. Add a fourth low card to that combination (remember what I said about all four cards working in concert) and you have a truly dangerous hand.

Which you'll have to throw away when the flop comes K-K-10. Oh well... such is the nature of Omaha.

Never play trips. The third matching card reduces by half your chances of the board helping your pair, plus it's another absolutely worthless card in your hand. Omaha is a four-card game, not a three-card game. Don't be a chump. Likewise, avoid playing hands with three or four cards suited. Even if you have the ace in the flush suit, you give away far too much in terms of live cards left in the deck. Omaha is a game of advantage; you can't afford to surrender yours.

Also be wary of any flush draw other than the nut flush. As I said, Omaha is an optimist's paradise. If you're holding Q-x of diamonds, say, and you're tempted to stay in the hand, you can bet your bottom dollar (and likely will, friend) that the A-x and/or K-x will be at least as willing to stay as you. Ever heard the expression, "sucking hind tit?" Assume the worst in Omaha. Assume that if you can get beat, you will get beat. And the more players there are at the table, the more likely it is that the cards you hope aren't out against you are. Let the optimists optimize; you play a sensible game.

Some people will play any pair, or at least any high pair, on the chance of flopping a full boat. They just can't stand the thought of seeing that third (or third and fourth) jack come out after they've thrown away their pair of jacks. I understand the agony, but a pair by itself just isn't worth investing in. What cards complement your pair? If you've got a queen or a suited ace to go with the jack, then you're talking. If you've got an offsuit six-five, you're urinating upwind. 

To review, then, make sure that all four cards are live and working together to help your hand. Watch out for black holes in your hand: cards that actively hurt your chances of winning. Don't overestimate the strength of your supposed "nut" low. In general, don't overestimate any hand you hold. Even a before-the flop powerhouse like A-A-2-3 double-suited can turn to dust if the flop comes against you. Here's a rule of thumb worth swearing by (tattoo this to the inside of your wrist, so that you can refer to it in a pinch): When in doubt, fold. I'll repeat that for those of you who weren't paying attention: When in doubt, fold! This one simple rule will save you more money over the course of your Omaha career than anything else I could tell you. Most hands won't turn out your way anyway. WHEN IN DOUBT, FOLD!

###

Couldn't convince you to fold, huh? I didn't think I could; no game attracts flopheads like Omaha. Okay, you stay to see the flop. Now one of three things can happen. The flop can make your hand, kill your hand, or somewhere in between. Make your hand and kill your hand are easy. If you're made, you bet. If you're dead, you fold. You don't need my help with that (or if you do, again, I invite you down to my place for a friendly game of cards). But what if the flop helps you only a little? What do you do then?

Suppose, for example, you're chasing a low with A-2, and the flop comes 3-10-Q. Do you stay or do you go? You're going to need to hit live low cards on both the turn and the river to win. Referring once more to our calculator, we discover that your chances of making the low under these circumstances are a fairly feeble 16%. And remember that you're only competing for half the pot. Plus, every other A-2 at the table will still be clinging to the hand, just waiting to quarter your profit. Refer to rule one above: when in doubt, fold.

But what if the flop contains two cards to your nut low? Now the story is a little different. You only need to hit one helping card on the turn or the river, so your chances of making the low zoom up to a whopping 72%. I like those odds, don't you?

And of course if the flop comes 3-4-6, say, then you've flopped the nut low and you're in the driver's seat, right? Well, yes, at least until the turn or the river counterfeits you with an ace or a deuce. Ah, the vicissitudes of Omaha...

Here's a situation we see a lot: You're playing a nut-flush draw, and the flop yields two cards to your flush. Your chances of completing the flush are 9/45 + 9/44 or roughly 40%. So you calculate the pot odds to determine whether it's worth your while to chase. Don't forget that you might only get half the pot if you win. Also don't forget that if the board pairs, than any tiny full house can reduce your nut flush to ashes. Is it worth your while to chase? Only if there are enough other players in the pot to cover your odds if you hit your hand. 

The situation you want is when you're going for a nut flush, but you already hold, or have some prospect of holding, a winning hand some other way. If your flush draw is backed up by a straight draw or trips, then you're much more likely to profit from the play. I can't do the odds--I'm pushing the envelope of my math skills as it is. Suffice it to say that if you'd taken my advice about starting with four working cards, you'd be a lot better off right now.

Lots of optimists like to bet on the come. If they've flopped four cards to a low or four cards to a straight or flush, they operate on the assumption that they're going to complete their hands and they bet accordingly. Bad idea. Really, really bad. Sometimes you can't help calling along. The pot odds favor you, and you have to stay in. But you don't have to be stupid. Millions, literally, are lost by optimists betting on the come. Wait till you complete your hand, even if that's not till the river. Trust me, there'll still be plenty of optimists waiting to donate. You simply lose too much money betting on the come to make it a worthwhile play in the long run.

The exception, and it's a valid one, is when you're driving the hand. Suppose you start with As-2s-4-4. This is certainly a good start, with the flush draw, the low, the straight and the pair (notice that the low pair just adds strength to an already strong hand; by itself, it's very nearly worthless). You've raised before the flop, which comes K-K-10. The only way you're going to win this hand is to represent muscle you don't have, and hope that everyone else runs away. You know that all the low-chasers will fold against any bet now. If you continue to drive this hand, you could drive everyone else out. 

Or, you could get your clock cleaned. 

Omaha is a sand trap, friends, it's like the perfect manifestation of Murphy's Law: anything that can go wrong will go wrong, usually on the river. Your lows will get counterfeited; your nut straights and flushes will be board-paired into oblivion. So how can you win this silly game? By recognizing better than the other guy how really remote your chances are of winning in the first place. Start with quality cards. Fold when your chances of winning go south. Don't chase. When you get the goods, bet the goods. The optimists around you will cling to the notion that they'll draw out on you. And sometimes they will, and you'll have a bad beat story to tell. But in the long run, you'll make real money on your good cards, and the optimists will be running to their banks for more.

Good luck. Be bold. Tell 'em Taylor sent you.