THE So-CALLED COIN FLIP

by John
Vorhaus

Now that more of us are switching from limit to no-limit hold'em, we need to focus our attention on the decisions that matter most, namely whether to make or call big bets or all-in wagers. With the able help of top math craftsman Tony "Flawless Victory" Guerrero, I've been looking at some no-limit numbers of note, and if you look at them with me, you might find altered, or at least informed, the way you go about making your all-in decisions. 

Consider, for instance, the so-called "coin flip" confrontation of overcards versus a pocket pair. Most players and even TV commentators call, say, 8-8 versus A-K "a coin-flip." While I'm not fussy about precise numbers -- a thumbnail grab is to me more useful than exact odds to many significant figures -- I think it's misleading to imply that this is a true fifty-fifty proposition, and that those inclined to gamble would happily take either side of the action. In fact, the pocket pair, no matter which pocket pair, is always at least a 52-48% favorite over any two overcards. Sometimes, as in the case of Q-Q versus A-K offsuit, the edge is much higher, 57-43%. While that may be in the neighborhood of a coin flip (if you define neighborhood loosely enough) it's not a neighborhood you'll find profitable if you're consistently on the wrong end of the odds.

Does this mean you should always make a big move with pocket pairs, knowing that you have a measurable edge against overcards? Obviously not, since overcards aren't the only sort of hand out there against you. There might also be overpairs, and if you run into a bigger pocket pair, you're on the order of a 4 to 1 underdog, and facing an uphill climb.

But you do want to have in your arsenal the ability to make big bets with pocket pars, so do two things to minimize your exposure to overpairs. First, naturally, avoid making big moves with small pairs. Even pocket eights face six dominating pocket pairs; pocket deuces face twelve. The less headroom you leave in the deck, the better your chances are of getting called by the overcards you seek and not the overpairs you fear. Second, save your big pocket pair moves for late position when there are fewer hands left to act, and therefore fewer chances of running into a dominating pair. Acting late also increases your chances of winning without a fight, and those fold-outs give your big moves with pocket pairs a lot of extra equity.

If I play small pairs at all, I play them as a drawing hand, hoping to flop a set and trap other players for all their chips. Just because 4-4 is a theoretical favorite against some hypothetical A-K or A-Q doesn't give me (or you) license to go nuts. Yet we see all kinds of players, especially those new to the game, getting terribly frisky with these hands -- moving all-in under the gun with small pairs and hoping for the magical power of the "coin flip" to see them through to victory. This is hazardous in a cash game, where you can at least reload if it goes horribly wrong. In tournaments, it's suicide, unless you're confident that everyone will fold -- but then you're on a pure steal and it really doesn't matter whether your cards are high or low, paired or unpaired, red, black, blue, green or silver.

Bottom line: Pocket pairs play best for big raises when they're not early and not small. Otherwise, play them to hit a set, or better yet don't play them at all.

One thing overcards have going for them is that they're rarely badly dominated like pairs can be. The only time a hand like A-K is in serious trouble, for instance, is when it finds itself up against A-A or K-K, in which case the A-K figures to lose seven to nine times out of ten. But the odds against an opponent having one of these hands are extremely long, especially since you hold an ace and a king yourself. Therefore, when you bet big with A-K, you can usually be confident of being no worse than a slight underdog -- though never a pure favorite -- against the likeliest calling hands, other pocket pairs.

This fact gives you a little room to get creative with your A-K holdings. Let's say you're playing in a no-limit game with $2 and $5 blinds, and three players have limped in before the action gets to you. You have $100 in your stack. If you push all-in and get one caller, you'll be betting $100 to win around $120. The dead-money overlay gives you proper odds if you get called by a pocket pair from queens on down, plus extra equity from the times that no one cares to contest.

Of course, you have to know your foes. In today's wild and wooly low buy-in no limit games, people will make all sorts of -- I don't want to call them stupid, so let's call them imaginative -- plays. Get two callers in this situation and, depending on their hands, you're usually slightly worse than a 3-2 favorite to win. Yes, you're still a favorite, but you'll still go broke two times out of five. It's no fun to go broke, especially if the agony of defeat can put you on tilt and cause you to start hemorrhaging at the wallet. So not only do you have to know your foes, you have to know yourself: Can you make high-risk, high-reward moves, encounter adverse outcomes, and still stay on your game? If so, go ahead and play Big Slick strongly, confident that with rare exceptions the hand is never in terrible shape to start. If not, snug up your starting requirements and look for opportunities to drive pure premium hands, or else to trap where the cost is low and the potential profit is high.